A leaf falls and knows the world. The rapid increase in the production and sales of Diaper
s for the elderly is silently showing the picture of China's aging.
Last year, the growth rate of adult inco
ntinence products (diaper
s, diapers) mainly targeted at the elderly in China exceeded the growth rate of Baby diaper
s. According to the statistics of the China Paper Association Committee on Tissue Paper, the co
nsumption of adult inco
ntinence products reached 2.86 billion pieces in 2015, a growth rate of 15.8%; while the co
nsumption of baby paper diapers increased by o
Behind the growth of adult diapers: China's aging is surging
Vodafone International (3331.HK), a Hong Kong-listed tissue paper manufacturer, said in its 2016 interim report: "Chinese society is entering an aging society, and the demand for quality incontinence care products is increasing, and incontinence care opportunities are unlimited." In addition to the adult incontinence product "Bao Daren", in the first half of the year, it launched a new adult diaper brand - Tian Ning, to maintain and expand the sales channels.
The 2015 Annual Report on the Tissue Paper Industry released by the China Paper Association's Tissue Paper Committee predicts that by 2020, the market penetration rate of adult incontinence products will increase from the current 3% to 10%. The elderly will become a market that cannot be ignored by paper diapers.
Behind the growth of adult incontinence products is the rapid growth of the elderly population in China. Statistics show that in the past decade, the number of elderly people over the age of 65 in China has increased at an average annual rate of 4.3 million. The picture below shows the change in the number of people over the age of 65 based on official data.
At present, China is the country with the most elderly population in the world. According to the “Statistical Bulletin of Social Service Development 2015” issued by the Ministry of Civil Affairs, as of the end of 2015, the number of elderly people over 65 years old in China reached 144 million, accounting for 10.5% of the total population. In the same period, the number of elderly people over the age of 60 reached 220 million. By 2020, the number of elderly people over 65 will be even more alarming.
The elderly industry is soaring, pensions can’t make ends meet
After the implementation of the multi-year policy, the 4-2-1 family structure has made many elderly people face the dilemma of inadequate care for the elderly. Many families are in a state where a couple is caring for four elderly people and one child, and the pressure is steep. After the full release of the two children, many families will become 4-2-2 structures, and a couple will have to care for four elderly and two children.
Care for the elderly has become an urgent problem. In recent years, China's old-age care institutions have grown rapidly, but they are far behind the increase in the elderly population.
According to data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, there were 116,000 old-age care institutions and facilities in 2015. In 2013 and 2014, there were 42,500 and 94,100 respectively, which is a rapid increase. According to the data of the Ministry of Civil Affairs, in the end of 2015, the old-age care institutions took over 3 million elderly people, which is just a drop in the bucket compared with the total number of elderly people who are over 100 million.
Another more serious problem is the pension gap. The "China Social Insurance Development Annual Report 2015" issued by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security shows that the total income of the five social insurance funds in 2015 was 460.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, while the expenditure growth rate reached 18.1%. Among them, the pension insurance funds for urban enterprise employees in six provinces have been “not enough to make ends meet” in the current period, and they have entered the situation of “selling and eating food”.
Under the influence of the policy of only one-child children for many years, the reduction of young people’s mouth has made the situation of the elderly even more difficult. Statistics show that from 2011 to 2015, China's working-age population aged 15-64 has decreased by about 26 million. According to a previous survey data from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, after 2030, the working-age population will experience a sharp decline, with an average annual reduction of 7.6 million.
The growth of diapers for the elderly is only a harbinger, and it also reflects a huge pension problem when it spawns new business opportunities. In the case of a decline in the labor force and the lack of pensions, who will raise the old people in the future?